EURGBP SIGNAL 10-03-2023 : EURGBP drops further below 0.8900 despite mixed UK data dump, ECB’s Lagarde in focus.


EURGBP SIGNAL 10-03-2023 : EURGBP drops further below 0.8900 despite mixed UK data dump, ECB’s Lagarde in focus.

  • EURGBP takes offers to refresh intraday low, prints three-day downtrend.
  • UK GDP improved in January, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production deteriorated.
  • Hopes of Britain’s economic rebound due to the latest reshuffle in governing policies, Brexit allow GBP to remain firmer.
  • BoE versus ECB drama could check pair sellers as the key data begins in London.

EURGBP slides 10 pips to refresh intraday low near 0.8860 as the UK’s Office for National Statistics releases the monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on early Friday. It should be noted that the optimism surrounding the British economic transition and mixed sentiment, as well as likely challenges for the Euro, seem to exert additional downside pressure on the cross-currency pair.

EURGBP SIGNAL : UK GDP grew 0.3% MoM in January versus 0.1% expected and -0.5% previous, which in turn pushes back the recession woes and propels the British Pound (GBP) despite mixed readings on the other fronts. That said, UK Industrial Production figures reversed the 0.3% previous expansion with -0.3% MoM marks whereas the Manufacturing Production growth dropped to -0.4% compared to -0.1% market forecasts and 0.0% prior.

Elsewhere, hopes of economic recovery and more stock market listings seem to help the Cable pair amid a light calendar during the week. “The country’s economy is on track to shrink less than expected this year and avoid the two-quarters of negative growth which mark a technical recession,” the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) forecast on Wednesday per Reuters. Further, Britain’s finance ministry said on Wednesday it will launch a review into how investor research on companies could be improved to attract more listings, a step that follows a decision by UK chip designer Arm Ltd to only list in New York, reported Reuters. On the same line, Britain’s revamped financial market rules will largely be aligned with U.S. and European Union regulations to minimize disruption to global companies, its financial services minister Andrew Griffith said on Thursday per Reuters.

It should be noted that Bank of England (BoE) policy maker Swati Dhingra warned against interest rate hikes on Wednesday while saying that overtightening poses a more material risk at this point.

EURGBP SIGNAL : On the other hand, fears of more economic pain for the bloc amid geopolitical tensions with Russia and sticky inflation, as well as higher rates, seem to drag the Euro. It should be noted that the risk-off mood underpins the US Dollar’s haven demand and reduces the demand of its major rival, namely the EUR.

Having witnessed the initial market reaction to the UK’s data dump, EUR/GBP pair traders may concentrate on European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde for clear directions. Also important to watch will be a slew of top-tier data from the US and Canada that can entertain the momentum traders across the board.

Technical analysis

Failure to overcome the 0.8930 horizontal hurdle joins the EUR/GBP pair’s clear downside break of a one-week-old ascending trend line, around 0.8895 by the press time, to direct bears towards the 100-DMA support of 0.8765.

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