AUDUSD SIGNAL 15-04-22 : AUDUSD remains defensive below 0.7420s post-US mixed data.


AUDUSD SIGNAL 15-04-22 : The AUDUSD is set to finish the week with losses, down 0.58%.

  • Risk aversion, broad US dollar strength, and a “decent” Australian jobs report weighed on the AUD.
  • AUD/USD Price Forecast: Remains range-bound amid the lack of catalyst as RSI turns horizontal.

On Thursday, as traders prepare for a long weekend, the AUDUSD treads water, sliding 0.35% in the North American session, and is trading at 0.7417 at the time of writing.

A risk-off market mood and a buoyant US dollar maintained the Australian dollar on the defensive, alongside mixed US economic data. Russo-Ukraine jitters and China’s Covid-19 outbreak in Shanghai cloud the global economic outlook.

Before Wall Street opened, some US economic data crossed wires. Retail sales in March rose 0.5% m/m, lower than estimations, but it is worth noting that February was revised up to 0.8%. At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims for the last week ending on April 9 jumped to 185K from 171K expected, as data showed on Thursday.

AUDUSD SIGNAL : Late in the day, the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment rose to 65.7, higher than the 59.4 foreseen, despite the high inflationary scenario in the US. Furthermore, consumer inflation expectations remained at 5.4% over the next year.

In the case of the Australian docket, employment figures were good but lower than expectations. The Australian economy added just 17.9K new jobs, lower than the 40K estimated, while the Unemployment rate ticked up to 4%, higher than the 3.9%.

Now that data is in the rearview mirror, it’s worth noting what the next week would bring for AUD/USD traders. The Australian docket will feature RBA Minutes and the Consumer Price Index. Across the pond, the US docket will reveal US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, and Flash PMIs.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

AUDUSD SIGNAL : Given that the AUD/USD is trading below the 0.7500 figure, it is downward pressured. So far in the week, the AUD/USD is down 0.58%, but the positive is that it remains above the April 13 cycle low at 0.7391. If that was not the case, the AUD/USD might be headed towards March’s 15 pivot low around 0.7165; however, it remains trapped in the 0.7400-0.7500 range.

Upwards, the AUD/USD’s first resistance would be the April 13 daily high at 0.7474. Once cleared, the next resistance would be 0.7500. A decisive break would send the AUD/USD towards the confluence of October 2021 and March 28 around the 0.7535-55 area.

On the flip side, the AUD/USD first support would be 0.7400. A breach of the latter would expose the April 13 cycle low at 0.7391, which, once broken, would expose the March 21 daily low at 0.7373, followed by an upslope trendline around the 0.7330-45 area.

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