USDCAD SIGNAL 20-04-22 : USDCAD Loonie unlikely to make significant gains – Commerzbank.

USDCAD SIGNAL 20-04-22 : USDCAD Loonie unlikely to make significant gains – Commerzbank.

USDCAD SIGNAL : The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to raise rates by 75bp. Subsequently, the loonie is set to strengthen against the euro but weaken against the US dollar due to the stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), respectively, economists at Commerzbank report.

On the market more than 75bp are already priced in for the OIS-based rate expectations over the 3-month horizon – i.e. the next two BoC meetings. Depending on whether the US central bank or the ECB is used as a benchmark this seems rather disappointing or quite attractive.

USDCAD SIGNAL : The loonie will continue to struggle to make significant gains against the USD even if the market increasingly expects one or more 50bp BoC steps. On the other hand, further CAD-gains against the euro seem possible, in particular in view of the continued war in Ukraine.

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