USDCAD SIGNAL 19-12-2022 : USDCAD picks up bids to 1.3680 as oil retreats amid sluggish session, Canada/US inflation eyed.

USDCAD SIGNAL 19-12-2022 : USDCAD picks up bids to 1.3680 as oil retreats amid sluggish session, Canada/US inflation eyed.

• USD/CAD struggles to defend bears during the first daily loss in three.
• Oil price initially cheered hopes of China stimulus, softer US Dollar before latest consolidation.
• Inflation is the key but holiday mood could restrict short-term moves.

USDCAD consolidates intraday losses as it grinds higher around 1.3680, following a downbeat start to the week.

USDCAD SIGNAL : That said, softer US Dollar and optimism surrounding Crude Oil seemed to have contributed to the Loonie pair’s first daily loss in three before the latest paring of moves amid a light calendar and mixed concerns.

US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up bids from intraday low but prints 0.15% daily loss around 104.60 as traders struggle for clear directions. The reason could be linked to the hawkish Fedspeak and softer US PMIs for December.

That said, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester and New York Federal Reserve President John Williams recently favored higher rates. On the other hand, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.2 from 47.7 in November, as well as the market expectation of 47.7. Further, S&P Global Services PMI declined to 44.4 in December’s flash estimate from 46.2 in November and market expectation of 46.8.

USDCAD SIGNAL : It should be noted that the WTI crude oil prices, Canada’s main export retreats to $75.00 after an initial run-up to $75.93. Even so, the black gold snaps a two-day downtrend amid hopes of firmer demand from China and the US decision to buy back oil for its state reserves.

On the contrary, global recession woes underpin the US Treasury yields and challenge equity traders. In addition to the mixed signals and holiday mood could also be held responsible for the USD/CAD pair’s latest moves.

Moving on, the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Core for November, expected 6.4% YoY versus 5.8% prior, will be important for the USD/CAD traders ahead of the Fed’s preferred version of inflation, namely Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Price Index, expected 4.6% YoY and 5.0% prior.

Technical analysis

A seven-day-old horizontal resistance area near 1.3700 inside a rising wedge bearish formation, established since early November, restricts short-term USD/CAD moves.

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